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Fourth Quarter Review and 2021 Market Forecast
Silverdale and Bremerton’s Central Kitsap market finished 2020 with a strong fourth quarter. We’ve compiled a comprehensive review of Central Kitsap market statistics, as well as insights and predictions for 2021 from Windermere Real Estate’s Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner.
Our Strong Seller’s Market
Central Kitsap remains a seller’s market, like the rest of Kitsap County. Inventory is low and everyone wants to buy a house away from the bigger cities. Buyers, the market is in a regular seasonal slowdown – but not as slow as expected given COVID-19. With many determined buyers and consistently low inventory, the advantage goes to sellers. Our Brokers have seen an increase in situations where some buyers are outbid either by price or by an all-cash offer.
In 2020’s fourth quarter, the average sale price in Central Kitsap was up 6.4% year-over-year at $399K. Sale prices continue to hover close to listing prices, indicating strong demand.
2021 Market Forecast
In his final Monday with Matthew video of 2020, our Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, shared his 2021 market forecast. He’s optimistic and for some good reasons.
First off, Gardners expects mortgage rates will not rise significantly on a local level, nor will they vary significantly throughout different regions across the U.S. Since mortgage rates are heavily tied to 10 year treasury maturity rates/yields, rates shouldn’t rise significantly until the entire market recovers from the COVID-19 slowdown. Another great sign is that Gardner expects home sales will grow significantly, from 5.55% in 2020 to 5.93% in 2021. That’s “to a level we haven’t seen since 2006,” Gardner explains. With the continuation of historically low mortgage rates and the consistent increase of home values, 2021 looks bright.
“No! There isn’t a housing bubble forming. But price growth will slow & sellers may feel like it’s a collapse … it isn’t collapsing, it’s just normalizing.”
Matthew reminds us that there are pitfalls to be wary of in this strong market. First and foremost: “we need more inventory.” With the shuffling to new homes, and the huge wave of “first-time buyers [that] will continue to be a major player in the housing market,” many are making moves in a flood that will not persist. Buying during the pandemic will slowly settle. People are expected to stay in their homes longer, especially homeowners who have chosen to refinance. House values will rise due to the lack of supply, and that may price out many buyers who want to purchase in our area.
Western Washington’s Market Report
For a big picture glance at how our local market compares, here are highlights from The Western Washington Gardner Report.
WESTERN WASHINGTON HOME SALES
- Total Sales: 26.6% increase from Q4/2019, but 8.3% lower than Q3/2020
- Homes for Sale: 37.3% lower than Q4/2019, and 31.2% lower than Q3/2020
- Pending Sales: up 25% from Q4/2019, but 31% lower than Q3/2020
- Average: $617,475 (up 17.4% from Q4/2019). This continues the trend of above-average appreciation of home values.
- Interestingly, prices between Q3 and Q4 of 2020 only rose by 1%. Is there a price ceiling we’re reaching?
- Mortgage rates will stay competitive as the market continues to charge toward a price ceiling and potential affordability issues.
- Average: 31 Days (16 days less than Q4 just one year ago)
- In Kitsap County, average days on market: 17
Conclusion
2021 will continue the trend of working from home, which keeps demand high. This, in turn, will drive sales growth, while affordability barriers will balance our current runaway appreciation for home values.
New Agent Spotlight: Joe Stevick
We are proud to feature Joe Stevick in our new Q&A spotlight series. Joe is one of our new real estate agents and brings a range of interesting skills and experiences to the table. He’s a lifetime local of Kitsap County who is involved in the communities he serves and he has also spent time working abroad. Read on to find out more about this caring professional who truly puts people first.
What drew you to real estate?
I was drawn to real estate because I love working in service industries and had recently returned to Kitsap County after a long stint overseas. I was also curious about the increasing costs of housing and the worsening problem of homelessness in our area.
What unique professional experiences or skills do you possess that enhance your abilities as a realtor?
I was in the Peace Corps for three years. This, coupled with working as an operations director for a small chocolate factory in Madagascar, has taught me a lot about people and the level of problem solving and patience that is required to get the job done. Peace Corps really teaches you to understand people and to help them in the best way possible.
What personality traits do you think are important in this profession?
I think patience and a knack for listening to people are important characteristics to have in any profession and real estate is no different.
Which areas do you serve and what do you love about those areas?
I serve all of Kitsap County and Mason County. I love these areas because there is a rural lifestyle that still has access to the city if need be. Also, we have an incredibly diverse group of people in these areas, which I love. Helping people integrate and better their new communities is a passion of mine.
How long have you lived here?
I grew up in Kitsap County, going to Esquire Hills Elementary, Ridgetop Junior High, and Olympic High School. COVID-19 brought me back to Kitsap but the people, lifestyle, and natural beauty of the PNW kept me here.
“My siblings and I. Where would we be without siblings?”
How are you involved in the community?
I am a member of the East Bremerton Rotary, through which I do a lot of work for the Illahee Preserve. Also, I help out at Olympic High School when I can, and still have affiliation with the Olympic High School baseball team.
What made you decide to work with Windermere?
I decided to join Windermere because I could tell right away that its affiliates were nice and welcoming. Windermere has a respected name and it is because its agents are professional and caring. This is what I wanted to be as a new agent.
We are so happy that Joe has joined us. We know his skillset, professionalism, and sincerity will be an asset to buyers and sellers across Kitsap County and Mason County. You can connect with Joe on Facebook, Instagram, or through his website.
Central Kitsap’s Market: Third Quarter Review and Forecast
Central Kitsap’s market had a very strong third quarter. We’ve compiled key stats below to provide a comprehensive review of our market, as well as insights and predictions from Windermere Real Estate’s Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner.
Our Strong Seller’s Market
It’s a strong seller’s market here in Central Kitsap. Inventory remains low while demand is high. In our third quarter, the median sale price was up 11.5% year-over-year at $379K. Buyers should be aware that multiple offer situations have become more common in our area.
Market Predictions
Although mortgage rates remain historically low and demand is high, our Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, has some concerns about how this may impact real estate down the road. “We may be heading towards a period where we see houses turn over at a far slower pace as we stay in our homes for longer than ever…this could be a problem as it leads to persistently low levels of inventory for sale, which itself could lead to prices continuing to rise at above-average rates and that would further hit affordability.” As for mortgage rates, Gardner does not expect them to rise significantly any time soon. However, he says, “We should all be aware that there could be consequences to very low rates”.
Western Washington Review
Let’s zoom out a bit and look at our area. Below are highlights from The Western Washington Gardner Report provided by Windermere Real Estate’s Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner.
WESTERN WASHINGTON HOME SALES
- Total Sales: 11.6% increase from Q3/2019, and 45.9% higher than Q2/2020
- Homes for Sale: 41.7% lower than Q3/2019, but up 1.6% from Q2/2020
- Pending Sales: up 29% from Q2/2020
WESTERN WASHINGTON HOME PRICES
- Average: $611,793 (up 17.1% from Q3/2019). Low mortgage rates and limited inventory are clearly pushing prices up.
- Prices will continue to increase as long as mortgage rates and inventory levels stay low. If this continues to be the case, affordability issues will become more apparent in many markets.
DAYS ON MARKET, WESTERN WASHINGTON
- Average: 36 days (an average of 4 fewer days than in Q2/2020 and 2 fewer days than in Q3/2019)
- In Kitsap County, average days on market: 20
Conclusion
In Gardner’s Western Washington Report, he states that, although we have a strong seller’s market that is very buoyant, he’s “starting to see affordability issues increase in many areas—not just in the central Puget Sound region—and this is concerning. Perhaps the winter will act to cool the market, but something is telling me we shouldn’t count on it.”
Selling Your Home is Now Easier: Windermere Invests to Impress
When it comes to selling your home, first impressions are everything. We believe this so strongly that we created the Windermere Ready program. With concierge-level service, our program prepares your home for the market with guidance from a local expert as well as financial assistance, if needed.
Sell For More in Less Time
On average, sellers who make necessary repairs and upgrades before selling generally sell their home for more and in less time. Of course, every home is unique, but preparation is often the key to success.
Our Windermere Ready program provides:
- One-on-one consultation
- A personalized plan
- High impact updates
- Professional staging
We all know that buyers prefer stylish, turnkey homes. But it can be challenging to know which repairs and upgrades will get the biggest return. That’s why we offer an individualized approach. One of our local real estate experts will work with you to determine what needs to be done with your timeline and needs in mind.
After they identify your top home improvement priorities, they will develop a plan of action. They will connect you with preferred local service providers, assist with a work schedule, and make any necessary arrangements. Working with a highly skilled professional also means your home will be correctly priced so you’ll avoid the dangers of an overpriced home.
Update Your Home to Make an Impact
Sometimes the smallest updates can make the biggest impact on a buyer. A home with real curb appeal, a fresh coat of paint, and a sparkling clean interior can exude warmth and charm. Even something small yet noticeable like a stylish light fixture or updated kitchen cabinet hardware can really enhance a house and make it feel like a home.
Here are some of the items that we focus on:
- Interior and Exterior Painting
- Window Washing
- Landscaping
- Carpet Cleaning/Replacement
- Floor Repair/Refinishing
- Fixture Repair or Replacement
- Cosmetic Updates
- Decluttering
- Professional Deep Cleaning
Stage Your Home to Create the Best Experience
In addition to making needed repairs and updates, we highly recommend staging your home. With the help of professional stagers, you can boost your bottom line. A staged home allows buyers to easily see themselves living there. Our expert stagers know how to use light, color, texture, and space to effectively highlight the best features of each room. According to Forbes, staged homes sell 87% faster and for 17% more than non-staged homes.
We’re Invested in Your Success, Literally
If needed, we can offer up to $50,000 to assist with expenses incurred, and there’s no upfront cost to you. The loan term is six months and no monthly payments are due during that time. The loan is paid off in one lump sum when the collateral property is sold. If you’d like more information about our Windermere Ready Loan, please contact us today.
