Our Central Kitsap real estate market continues to grow in volume. Keep reading for key highlights about our strong seller’s market. 

Our Competitive Seller’s Market

Central Kitsap’s inventory and demand are higher than they were this time last year. More people are able to work from home and are ready to enjoy life on the Kitsap Peninsula.  And, these eager buyers outnumber sellers – even with Central Kitsap’s growing sales volume.  Our Brokers often see multiple offer situations, resulting in bidding wars. However, if you’re looking to buy, don’t let that discourage you. That’s exactly why you need a local real estate agent to serve as your advocate and provide insight into this competitive market.

Market Data

Our third quarter of 2021 continues to thrive, both in sales volume and the large demand for homes in Kitsap County, WA.  Home prices are still growing at a consistent rate, just as they did last quarter.  This strong growth will probably slow down as we near the holiday season.  And, if price growth does slow, we might see the market shift away from favoring sellers to a more balanced state.

Central Kitsap’s sale prices are very strong. During our third quarter, they increased by 19.7% year-over-year.  While affordability is becoming more of an issue, it looks like we may be heading toward a more balanced market. More on that in the next section.

Home Purchase Sentiment Index

In his most recent Monday with Matthew video, our Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, analyzed the data from Fannie Mae’s most recent Home Purchase Sentiment Index. The data comes from a survey containing roughly 100 questions on housing-related topics. Fannie Mae collected 1,000 consumer responses from across the country. As Matthew Gardner says, “It’s the only national, monthly survey that’s focused primarily on housing.”

The survey shows that many Americans continue to think it is not a good time to buy because of the low supply and rapidly rising prices.  However, many feel it is a good time to sell as consumers predict home prices and mortgage rates will go down.  As Gardner explains, “most consumers continue to report that it’s a good time to sell a home, but a bad time to buy. They most frequently cite high home prices and a lack of supply as their primary rationale…However, the good time to buy component did tick up for the first time since March.”  Gardner sums it up by saying, “Consumers tempered both their recent pessimism about home buying conditions and their upward expectations of home price growth.”  So again, we are seeing the potential for a shift toward a more balanced market.

Silverdale and Bremerton’s Central Kitsap market exceeded performance predictions during our second quarter.  We’ve compiled key highlights below so that you can easily get informed about our local real estate market. 

Our Strong Seller’s Market

In Silverdale and Bremerton, inventory is still low and demand remains high.  Many people are now able to work remotely and that has enabled these buyers to consider areas outside major cities – like Central Kitsap.  Now these eager buyers outnumber sellers.  Our Brokers continue to experience situations where some buyers are outbid either by price or by an all-cash offer in this competitive market.

If you look at the last five quarters detailed in the graph below, the market is still growing year-over-year.  This data indicates the summer market will continue to heat up.

Since our inventory remains low, the prices continue to rise. Historically low mortgage rates are enabling many buyers to purchase homes for higher prices. As you can see below, the listing and sale price divergence is shrinking now. So if you’re thinking of selling, now is a great time to do so. 

Market Insights From Our Chief Economist

In his most recent Monday with Matthew, our Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, begins with the staggering fact that “prices have risen almost three-fold, as the cost to finance has dropped by 72%.”  If the number sounds too good (or bad) to be true, that’s because it is. To get an accurate picture, you also have to factor in inflation. Gardner explains that “just like other goods and services, the price of a house today is not directly comparable to the price of that same house 30 years ago because of the long run influence of inflation.”  When you adjust for inflation, the rise in housing prices becomes less drastic. Without adjusting for inflation, “prices have risen by 268%”. But when you adjust for inflation, the “real prices have increased by 83.6%”.  Therefore, the increase is much lower than what most people are discussing today.

Matthew also compares mortgage payments, another important piece of the puzzle.  Although, without adjusting for inflation, “mortgage payments have increased by 74.3%,” the inflation-adjusted “real payments are 10.7% lower!”  Of course, there are other monthly payments associated with home ownership. This includes property taxes, which do not change with market fluctuations. But this still indicates “that prices have been able to rise so significantly because mortgage rates have dropped”. It’s also because “inflation-adjusted home prices really haven’t skyrocketed – contrary to popular opinion.”

However, Matthew clarifies saying, “there are some markets across the country where the picture isn’t quite as rosy.  In these places, prices have risen significantly more than the national average.”  The Seattle metropolitan subunit (which extends around our local area) is one of these places. This is largely due to the increasing affluence as a result of the tech boom.

Not a Housing Bubble

Gardner’s bottom line is this: “there are quantifiable reasons to believe that we are not in a national housing bubble today.” However, he does point out that some markets will see a slowdown in price growth given “where prices are today in concert with the spectre of rising mortgage rates.”  Ultimately, it’s still a strong seller’s market with an overall low supply and high demand. We expect to continue to see issues with affordability as prices and mortgage rates continue to climb.

Central Kitsap’s market bounced back in our first quarter after the seasonal slowdown. We’ve compiled key statistics to keep you up to date with our local real estate market.

Our Strong Seller’s Market

Central Kitsap just had a great first quarter after the quieter winter season. With Central Kitsap’s proximity to Seattle and Tacoma, it’s appealing to people who are moving away from bigger cities as COVID-19 changes the way we work. There are still many eager buyers outnumbering sellers as inventory remains low and demand remains high. Our Brokers can help you navigate this competitive market. Many current buyers are being outbid and it can be an overwhelming process. That’s why it’s so important to have a local expert as your guide. 

In the last five quarters outlined in the graph below, there’s a similar growth trend when comparing 2020’s first quarter to 2021’s first quarter. And, we saw a 15% increase in closed sales year over year. Get ready for the market to continue to heat up as we move from spring to summer.

As you can see below, the listing and sale prices both continue to rise as sellers continue to benefit from our inventory shortage.  Many buyers have still been able to meet the pricing demands of this seller’s market. But low inventory means we’ll continue to see even higher prices.  These prices could reach an affordability ceiling where potential buyers will be priced out of the market.

Affordability Issues and Market Insights

Matthew Gardner, Windermere’s Chief Economist, continues to track this affordability ceiling in his most recent Housing and Economic Update: “If the pace of home price growth continues, many households will start to be priced out” of what people can actually afford.  As Gardner points out, we need more supply, and we need home prices to drop to alleviate this market strain.

Unfortunately, that might not happen fast enough for many hopeful homebuyers to make their dream a reality. Gardner reminds us that the cost of materials, recent storms, and the current housing market prices have all added to the cost of building new homes. This, in turn, will add to the listing price.

Additionally, Gardner points out that mortgage rates have risen after “a jump in bond yields has led rates to spike” as the country re-opens and economic activity increases. The resulting potential inflation causes the 10-year treasury interest rates to rise in hopes of attracting more buyers.  However, it is still far below standard rates and shouldn’t be a concern for buyers right now.

Ultimately, it’s still a strong Seller’s Market with an overall low supply and high demand. We expect to continue to see issues with affordability as prices continue to climb.