Home BuyersReal Estate Market April 25, 2023

Buy a Home Now or Wait? Kitsap Stats & Our Advice

Some people are asking themselves whether it’s a smart move to buy a house right now or if they should wait it out. The thing is, the answer isn’t as simple as some might assume. No matter if you’re a first-time home buyer or an experienced buyer, there are a few factors you should consider before making this decision.

Know Your Local Real Estate Market

Real estate is about supply and demand, and it’s so important that you learn about your local real estate market. If you’re looking to buy a home here in Kitsap County, Washington, you can watch our “Market Update” video below, which includes stats for Kitsap County’s first quarter. One key fact to note: in this year’s first quarter, the home sale price was $599,000. That’s a slight decrease of 1.2% when comparing home sale prices in 2022’s first quarter. Watch the full video to learn more, and if you have questions, feel free to reach out to one of our local real estate agents.

Advice from a Local Real Estate Expert

If you’d love some advice from a local real estate expert, we’ve got you covered. Nancy Mackleit, Windermere Silverdale’s Branch Manager, says, “Over the years, I’ve heard from clients who’ve said they wish they would have purchased back when prices were lower. It’s like a broken record. We have almost twice the inventory as we had last year at this time.  Though we are still seeing multiple offers on some properties, it is not like last year.  Buyers have more of a selection. We are seeing more house sale contingencies, and buyers aren’t under so much pressure to compete with other buyers.  Have the interest rates changed?  Yes, the days of historically low-interest rates are over. Buyers and sellers need to adjust to the current interest rates. The rates may be higher, but the days of multiple offers on a property, escalating to prices to way above the list price, have definitely slowed down compared to last year.”

Another question buyers often ask in times like these is: what if interest rates go down? Nancy says, “Get the house now when it isn’t so competitive and refinance if this happens. There are always sellers who need to sell, and there are always buyers who need to buy. Historically, real estate picks up in spring and summer. Talk to your agent about the best strategy going into the current market. Your agent will be the best to guide you.”

Mortgage Rate Information, Predictions, and Misconceptions

Whether you’re leaning toward buying now or waiting a while, you’ll want to get pre-approved for a mortgage before going to open houses. You can shop around and get quotes from lenders, but carefully examine each lender’s proposal and terms.  Most homebuyers choose a 15-year or 30-year conventional mortgage. There are also first-time homebuyer programs, VA loans, and other programs.

As Windermere’s Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, says, “Education is everything.” So educate yourself now before diving into the home-buying process. Check out Matthew Gardner’s latest video, where he discusses mortgage rate predictions and misconceptions.

Examine Your Financial Situation & Consider Home Buying Costs

It’s important to thoroughly examine your finances and factor in all the upfront, associated costs with buying a home. First-time home buyers often focus on the down payment, but there are also closing fees, and oftentimes repairs pop up unless the home is in immaculate condition.

If you’re thinking of buying an investment property, you’ll need to really be in the know about your local rental market. Additionally, will you have the time to manage a property or will you hire a property manager? Will that property be able to really generate passive income for you in the near future or will it need a lot of work first? Furthermore, it’s important to think about how long you plan to own the property to avoid capital gains taxes if you’re thinking you may sell it within two years.

If you’ve decided you’re ready to buy a home, check out our home buying tips to learn more.

Real Estate Market April 12, 2022

Kitsap’s Market: First Quarter, 2022

Curious about how Kitsap County’s real estate market is doing? We had a solid first quarter and it’s still a seller’s market. In 2021, we saw strong buyer demand and low inventory, and that continues to be the case. Read on for key highlights and market trends.  If you have any questions, our local real estate experts are just a click away.

News on Sold and Pending Homes

kitsap-market-sold-graph

In the graph above, you can see a similar rise reflected in market volume that we saw this time last year.  This follows the typical real estate market trend of a cooler first quarter before the market heats up in the summer.  Sold homes still outpace pending listings and home prices are still increasing as a result of high demand. During 2022’s first quarter, 994 homes were sold. That’s up 10.7% year-over-year, showing more market activity.

Kitsap’s Market Still Favors Sellers

list-price-received-kitsap

Since inventory remains low, sellers can list with confidence. Buyers will need to be prepared for competitive situations. As construction ramps back up and the pandemic hopefully continues to wane, we expect to see more homes come on the market.

Listing Price vs. Sale Price

kitsap-market-listing-price-graph

During the first quarter of 2022, we saw a 10.8% increase in home prices when compared to 2021’s first quarter. Since the market tends to heat up in the late spring and summer, we expect prices to continue to rise. Many buyers will continue to meet sellers’ pricing demands, and others are facing affordability issues. Right now, the average sale price in Kitsap County is $606,000.

matthew-gardner-market

Insights from Our Chief Economist

Matthew Gardner, Windermere’s Chief Economist, shared his Top 10 Predictions for 2022 in one of his recent Monday with Matthew videos.  Here’s what Gardner predicts for 2022:

  1. Prices will continue to rise, though the pace of appreciation will slow. Gardner thinks it will be about 6% in 2022 versus the massive 16% rise of 2021.
  2. Spring will be busier than expected.  This will increase buyer demand, as buyers get more clarity in their new hybrid model combining remote and office work.
  3. The rise of the suburbs will also result from this work hybrid model.  Many buyers are moving within the same area they already lived in.
  4. New construction jumps since the cost to build has come down.
  5. Zoning issues will be addressed.
  6. Climate change will impact where buyers live. People will focus more on how safe a location is in relation to natural disasters.
  7. Urban markets will bounce back after the demand drop from Covid.
  8. A resurgence in foreign investors will return since the travel bans were lifted last November. The demand will rise as long as our borders remain open.
  9. First-time buyers will be an even bigger factor in 2022.  This year, 4.8 million millennials will turn 30, the median age of first-time buyers in the U.S.  First-time buyers will be looking for cheaper markets.
  10. Forbearance will come to an end and that will be okay. It was well thought out, and as Gardner says, “as of recording this video, there are now fewer than 900,000 owners still in the program.”  Hopefully, this continues to drop.

Additional Information

You can learn more from Matthew Gardner by reading his Market Update by region or watching his Monday with Matthew video series. And, if you’re new to our area, check out our free Guide to Kitsap.

Real Estate Market October 11, 2021

Third Quarter Market Review for Central Kitsap

Our Central Kitsap real estate market continues to grow in volume. Keep reading for key highlights about our strong seller’s market. 

central-kitsap-third-quarter-stats

Our Competitive Seller’s Market

Central Kitsap’s inventory and demand are higher than they were this time last year. More people are able to work from home and are ready to enjoy life on the Kitsap Peninsula.  And, these eager buyers outnumber sellers – even with Central Kitsap’s growing sales volume.  Our Brokers often see multiple offer situations, resulting in bidding wars. However, if you’re looking to buy, don’t let that discourage you. That’s exactly why you need a local real estate agent to serve as your advocate and provide insight into this competitive market.

Market Data

Our third quarter of 2021 continues to thrive, both in sales volume and the large demand for homes in Kitsap County, WA.  Home prices are still growing at a consistent rate, just as they did last quarter.  This strong growth will probably slow down as we near the holiday season.  And, if price growth does slow, we might see the market shift away from favoring sellers to a more balanced state.

central-kitsap-sold-pending-graph

Central Kitsap’s sale prices are very strong. During our third quarter, they increased by 19.7% year-over-year.  While affordability is becoming more of an issue, it looks like we may be heading toward a more balanced market. More on that in the next section.

listing-sale-price-graph-central-kitsap

Home Purchase Sentiment Index

In his most recent Monday with Matthew video, our Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, analyzed the data from Fannie Mae’s most recent Home Purchase Sentiment Index. The data comes from a survey containing roughly 100 questions on housing-related topics. Fannie Mae collected 1,000 consumer responses from across the country. As Matthew Gardner says, “It’s the only national, monthly survey that’s focused primarily on housing.”

The survey shows that many Americans continue to think it is not a good time to buy because of the low supply and rapidly rising prices.  However, many feel it is a good time to sell as consumers predict home prices and mortgage rates will go down.  As Gardner explains, “most consumers continue to report that it’s a good time to sell a home, but a bad time to buy. They most frequently cite high home prices and a lack of supply as their primary rationale…However, the good time to buy component did tick up for the first time since March.”  Gardner sums it up by saying, “Consumers tempered both their recent pessimism about home buying conditions and their upward expectations of home price growth.”  So again, we are seeing the potential for a shift toward a more balanced market.

Real Estate Market July 10, 2021

Second Quarter Market Review for Central Kitsap

Silverdale and Bremerton’s Central Kitsap market exceeded performance predictions during our second quarter.  We’ve compiled key highlights below so that you can easily get informed about our local real estate market. 

Our Strong Seller’s Market

In Silverdale and Bremerton, inventory is still low and demand remains high.  Many people are now able to work remotely and that has enabled these buyers to consider areas outside major cities – like Central Kitsap.  Now these eager buyers outnumber sellers.  Our Brokers continue to experience situations where some buyers are outbid either by price or by an all-cash offer in this competitive market.

If you look at the last five quarters detailed in the graph below, the market is still growing year-over-year.  This data indicates the summer market will continue to heat up.

Since our inventory remains low, the prices continue to rise. Historically low mortgage rates are enabling many buyers to purchase homes for higher prices. As you can see below, the listing and sale price divergence is shrinking now. So if you’re thinking of selling, now is a great time to do so. 

Market Insights From Our Chief Economist

In his most recent Monday with Matthew, our Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, begins with the staggering fact that “prices have risen almost three-fold, as the cost to finance has dropped by 72%.”  If the number sounds too good (or bad) to be true, that’s because it is. To get an accurate picture, you also have to factor in inflation. Gardner explains that “just like other goods and services, the price of a house today is not directly comparable to the price of that same house 30 years ago because of the long run influence of inflation.”  When you adjust for inflation, the rise in housing prices becomes less drastic. Without adjusting for inflation, “prices have risen by 268%”. But when you adjust for inflation, the “real prices have increased by 83.6%”.  Therefore, the increase is much lower than what most people are discussing today.

Matthew also compares mortgage payments, another important piece of the puzzle.  Although, without adjusting for inflation, “mortgage payments have increased by 74.3%,” the inflation-adjusted “real payments are 10.7% lower!”  Of course, there are other monthly payments associated with home ownership. This includes property taxes, which do not change with market fluctuations. But this still indicates “that prices have been able to rise so significantly because mortgage rates have dropped”. It’s also because “inflation-adjusted home prices really haven’t skyrocketed – contrary to popular opinion.”

However, Matthew clarifies saying, “there are some markets across the country where the picture isn’t quite as rosy.  In these places, prices have risen significantly more than the national average.”  The Seattle metropolitan subunit (which extends around our local area) is one of these places. This is largely due to the increasing affluence as a result of the tech boom.

Not a Housing Bubble

Gardner’s bottom line is this: “there are quantifiable reasons to believe that we are not in a national housing bubble today.” However, he does point out that some markets will see a slowdown in price growth given “where prices are today in concert with the spectre of rising mortgage rates.”  Ultimately, it’s still a strong seller’s market with an overall low supply and high demand. We expect to continue to see issues with affordability as prices and mortgage rates continue to climb.

 

Real Estate Market April 8, 2021

First Quarter Market Review for Central Kitsap

Central Kitsap’s market bounced back in our first quarter after the seasonal slowdown. We’ve compiled key statistics to keep you up to date with our local real estate market.

first quarter market stats

Our Strong Seller’s Market

Central Kitsap just had a great first quarter after the quieter winter season. With Central Kitsap’s proximity to Seattle and Tacoma, it’s appealing to people who are moving away from bigger cities as COVID-19 changes the way we work. There are still many eager buyers outnumbering sellers as inventory remains low and demand remains high. Our Brokers can help you navigate this competitive market. Many current buyers are being outbid and it can be an overwhelming process. That’s why it’s so important to have a local expert as your guide. 

In the last five quarters outlined in the graph below, there’s a similar growth trend when comparing 2020’s first quarter to 2021’s first quarter. And, we saw a 15% increase in closed sales year over year. Get ready for the market to continue to heat up as we move from spring to summer.

sold pending graph

As you can see below, the listing and sale prices both continue to rise as sellers continue to benefit from our inventory shortage.  Many buyers have still been able to meet the pricing demands of this seller’s market. But low inventory means we’ll continue to see even higher prices.  These prices could reach an affordability ceiling where potential buyers will be priced out of the market.

Affordability Issues and Market Insights

Matthew Gardner, Windermere’s Chief Economist, continues to track this affordability ceiling in his most recent Housing and Economic Update: “If the pace of home price growth continues, many households will start to be priced out” of what people can actually afford.  As Gardner points out, we need more supply, and we need home prices to drop to alleviate this market strain.

Unfortunately, that might not happen fast enough for many hopeful homebuyers to make their dream a reality. Gardner reminds us that the cost of materials, recent storms, and the current housing market prices have all added to the cost of building new homes. This, in turn, will add to the listing price.

Additionally, Gardner points out that mortgage rates have risen after “a jump in bond yields has led rates to spike” as the country re-opens and economic activity increases. The resulting potential inflation causes the 10-year treasury interest rates to rise in hopes of attracting more buyers.  However, it is still far below standard rates and shouldn’t be a concern for buyers right now.

 

Ultimately, it’s still a strong Seller’s Market with an overall low supply and high demand. We expect to continue to see issues with affordability as prices continue to climb.

Real Estate Market January 27, 2021

Fourth Quarter Review and 2021 Market Forecast

Silverdale and Bremerton’s Central Kitsap market finished 2020 with a strong fourth quarter. We’ve compiled a comprehensive review of Central Kitsap market statistics, as well as insights and predictions for 2021 from Windermere Real Estate’s Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner.

Central Kitsap Q4 2020 Market Stats

Our Strong Seller’s Market

Central Kitsap remains a seller’s market, like the rest of Kitsap County. Inventory is low and everyone wants to buy a house away from the bigger cities. Buyers, the market is in a regular seasonal slowdown – but not as slow as expected given COVID-19. With many determined buyers and consistently low inventory, the advantage goes to sellers. Our Brokers have seen an increase in situations where some buyers are outbid either by price or by an all-cash offer.

In 2020’s fourth quarter, the average sale price in Central Kitsap was up 6.4% year-over-year at $399K. Sale prices continue to hover close to listing prices, indicating strong demand.

Sold Homes Graph Central Kitsap

Avg Sale Prices Graph Central Kitsap

2021 Market Forecast

In his final Monday with Matthew video of 2020, our Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, shared his 2021 market forecast. He’s optimistic and for some good reasons.

First off, Gardners expects mortgage rates will not rise significantly on a local level, nor will they vary significantly throughout different regions across the U.S. Since mortgage rates are heavily tied to 10 year treasury maturity rates/yields, rates shouldn’t rise significantly until the entire market recovers from the COVID-19 slowdown.  Another great sign is that Gardner expects home sales will grow significantly, from 5.55% in 2020 to 5.93% in 2021. That’s “to a level we haven’t seen since 2006,” Gardner explains.  With the continuation of historically low mortgage rates and the consistent increase of home values, 2021 looks bright.

“No! There isn’t a housing bubble forming. But price growth will slow & sellers may feel like it’s a collapse … it isn’t collapsing, it’s just normalizing.”

Matthew reminds us that there are pitfalls to be wary of in this strong market. First and foremost: “we need more inventory.”  With the shuffling to new homes, and the huge wave of “first-time buyers [that] will continue to be a major player in the housing market,” many are making moves in a flood that will not persist. Buying during the pandemic will slowly settle. People are expected to stay in their homes longer, especially homeowners who have chosen to refinance. House values will rise due to the lack of supply, and that may price out many buyers who want to purchase in our area. 

Western Washington’s Market Report

For a big picture glance at how our local market compares, here are highlights from The Western Washington Gardner Report.

WESTERN WASHINGTON HOME SALES

  • Total Sales: 26.6% increase from Q4/2019, but 8.3% lower than Q3/2020
  • Homes for Sale: 37.3% lower than Q4/2019, and 31.2% lower than Q3/2020
  • Pending Sales: up 25% from Q4/2019, but 31% lower than Q3/2020
WESTERN WASHINGTON HOME PRICES
  • Average: $617,475 (up 17.4% from Q4/2019). This continues the trend of above-average appreciation of home values.
  • Interestingly, prices between Q3 and Q4 of 2020 only rose by 1%.  Is there a price ceiling we’re reaching?
  • Mortgage rates will stay competitive as the market continues to charge toward a price ceiling and potential affordability issues.
DAYS ON MARKET, WESTERN WASHINGTON
  • Average: 31 Days (16 days less than Q4 just one year ago)
  • In Kitsap County, average days on market: 17

Conclusion

Yes, it’s a Seller’s Market once again.  Matthew Gardner says, “I am moving the needle even further in favor of sellers.”  Here’s why: Covid-19 continues to push homeowners to stay put while renters flock to the countryside.  The resulting limited supply has “caused the region’s housing market to be incredibly active.” Matthew does warn that there may be “affordability concerns” that could prevent some homebuyers from entering the market and eventually slowing growth.
2021 will continue the trend of working from home, which keeps demand high. This, in turn, will drive sales growth, while affordability barriers will balance our current runaway appreciation for home values.
Real Estate Market October 27, 2020

Central Kitsap’s Market: Third Quarter Review and Forecast

Central Kitsap’s market had a very strong third quarter. We’ve compiled key stats below to provide a comprehensive review of our market, as well as insights and predictions from Windermere Real Estate’s Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner.

Our Strong Seller’s Market

It’s a strong seller’s market here in Central Kitsap. Inventory remains low while demand is high. In our third quarter, the median sale price was up 11.5% year-over-year at $379K. Buyers should be aware that multiple offer situations have become more common in our area.

south kitsap market graph q3

south kitsap months inventory graph q3

south kitsap q3 stat highlights

Market Predictions

Although mortgage rates remain historically low and demand is high, our Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, has some concerns about how this may impact real estate down the road. “We may be heading towards a period where we see houses turn over at a far slower pace as we stay in our homes for longer than ever…this could be a problem as it leads to persistently low levels of inventory for sale, which itself could lead to prices continuing to rise at above-average rates and that would further hit affordability.” As for mortgage rates, Gardner does not expect them to rise significantly any time soon. However, he says, “We should all be aware that there could be consequences to very low rates”.

Western Washington Review

Let’s zoom out a bit and look at our area. Below are highlights from The Western Washington Gardner Report provided by Windermere Real Estate’s Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner.

WESTERN WASHINGTON HOME SALES

  • Total Sales: 11.6% increase from Q3/2019, and 45.9% higher than Q2/2020
  • Homes for Sale: 41.7% lower than Q3/2019, but up 1.6% from Q2/2020
  • Pending Sales: up 29% from Q2/2020

WESTERN WASHINGTON HOME PRICES

  • Average: $611,793 (up 17.1% from Q3/2019). Low mortgage rates and limited inventory are clearly pushing prices up.
  • Prices will continue to increase as long as mortgage rates and inventory levels stay low. If this continues to be the case, affordability issues will become more apparent in many markets.

DAYS ON MARKET, WESTERN WASHINGTON

  • Average: 36 days (an average of 4 fewer days than in Q2/2020 and 2 fewer days than in Q3/2019)
  • In Kitsap County, average days on market: 20

Conclusion

In Gardner’s Western Washington Report, he states that, although we have a strong seller’s market that is very buoyant, he’s “starting to see affordability issues increase in many areas—not just in the central Puget Sound region—and this is concerning. Perhaps the winter will act to cool the market, but something is telling me we shouldn’t count on it.”